Only $300 million of Uber's $1.25 billion commitment is guaranteed at signing. The remaining $950 million is contingent on Rivian hitting specific autonomy milestones through 2031. Rivian has not built a single R2 yet, the Georgia factory is still under construction, and the company is guiding for just 46,000 to 51,000 total deliveries in 2026. Jose Castillo at Rivian Trackr lays out why the announcement deserves healthy skepticism before anyone declares victory.